新华社回应质疑:中国没有必要在GDP上玩弄数字游戏
来源:新华社 发布时间:2016-10-27 17:21:12

10月26日,新华社发表英文评论,回应关于中国平滑GDP数据(data smoothing)的质疑。

新华社评论称,中国经济已经连续三个季度实现6.7%的平稳增长,导致很多分析师怀疑中国在一定程度上平滑了数据。然而,中国政府没有任何目的或者必要去洗白真实的经济状况。连续三个季度经济增速相同显然是一个巧合。中国有充足的政策工具保持经济增速在6.5-7%的区间,包括货币政策和财政政策,以及结构性改革。中国经济再平衡和持续增长的可能性将由时间来证明,而不是分析师。

以下是新华社评论全文:

中国经济已经连续三个季度实现6.7%的平稳增长,导致很多分析师怀疑中国在一定程度上平滑了数据。

然而,事实是,中国政府没有任何目的或者必要去洗白真实的经济状况。

人们总是喜欢用怀疑的眼光来看待中国这个全球第二大经济体,而中国经济连续三个季度增长6.7%,更是引起了评论者们的质疑。

然而事实上,中国没有必要在GDP上玩弄数字游戏。政府今年设定了6.5%-7%的灵活增长区间,而中国拥有充足的工具,包括货币政策、财政政策以及结构性改革,来使经济增速保持在这一区间内。

平滑数据似乎是最简单的方法,但政府十分清楚,这是一种自欺欺人的做法,最终会损害结构性改革和长期经济增长。

诚然,确实有一些数据造假的案例,尤其是地方政府。在去年末的反腐行动中,东北地区的部分省份被发现数据造假。

为解决这一问题,中国去年采取了IMF的标准来加强数据系统,国家统计局官员独立采集地方数据以保证准确性。

本月稍早,中国政府领导层呼吁防范政府数据造假,并誓要严惩数据造假者。

而且,中央政府正在逐渐减少只通过GDP表现来评估地方官员,进一步减少了数据造假的必要性。

连续三个季度经济增速相同显然是一个巧合,但中国拥有一个稳定的经济的现象不足为奇。

使用GDP数据作为经济表现的关键指标已经有点过时,这越来越成为一个共识。GDP不一定完全准确反映经济的真实状况,过于依赖GDP可能适得其反。

还有一些数据是特别难操纵的,如发电量、货运和物流量,而这些数据都显示(中国经济的)平稳迹象,显示出制造业活动和消费的复苏。

是的,数据可以造假,观点也可以有偏颇,但是质疑中国数据的准确性总是比通过详细的调查来了解中国经济趋势要容易。

不管怎么样,中国将继续推进改革,同时保持经济扩张。中国经济再平衡和持续增长究竟是奇迹还是海市蜃楼,将由时间来证明,而不是分析师。

以下是新华社评论英文全文:

China's economy has achieved steady growth of 6.7 percent for three consecutive quarters, leading many analysts to suspect that there has been a bit of untoward data smoothing.

However, the reality is that the government simply has no incentive or necessity to whitewash the real economic picture.

It's routine for people to view economic data from China, the world's second largest economy, with skeptical eyes, and the fact GDP growth was exactly the same for three consecutive quarters, a first since such figures were released in 1992, raised more than a few eyebrows among commentators.

However, it would not be much of a whitewash by the statistics bureau to indulge in fabrication as such moves would inevitably draw widespread skepticism.

In reality, there is no need to play the numbers game. The government has set up a flexible GDP growth range of between 6.5 percent to 7 percent this year, and China has ample policy tools, including monetary and fiscal policy as well as structural reforms, to keep the economy within this range.

Smoothing the data might seem the easiest way to an end, but the government well-knows that it would be an act of self-delusion that could easily derail structural reforms and hurt economic growth in the long run.

Admittedly, there have been cases of faking statistics, especially by provincial governments; provinces in northeast China were found doctoring GDP data during an anti-corruption probe late last year.

To solve the problem, China adopted IMF standards to strengthen its data system last year and national statisticians now collect their own independent provincial data to ensure accuracy. Earlier this month, the Chinese leadership called for the prevention of fake government statistics and vowed to punish offenders accordingly.

Regardless, central government is now edging away from evaluating local officials solely based on GDP performance, further reducing the incentive for statistics bureaus to massage the figures.

The identical quarterly performance three times in a row is clearly a coincidence, but the implication that China has a stabilizing economy is of no surprise at all.

There is an increasing consensus that GDP data as a key gauge of economic performance is somewhat outdated. It does not necessarily paint the real economic picture, and being overly GDP-oriented can be counterproductive.

There is other economic data that is particularly difficult to manipulate, including electricity output, freight traffic and logistics volume, which all show signs of stabilization and point to a recovery in factory activity and consumption.

Yes, data can be faked just as opinions can be biased, but it is often easier to question the accuracy of economic data rather than attempting to gain a real insight into economic trends through detailed research.

Nevertheless, China will continue to press ahead with its reforms while maintaining economic expansion. Time, not analysts, will tell whether China's economic rebalancing and sustainable growth are a miracle or mirage.

(来源:新华社)

标签: 新华社 中国 数字

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